Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
